Dinar Quagmire

Online speculation regarding the ‘investment opportunity’ the
new Iraqi Dinar represents is becoming a virtual cottage
industry
However,I’m already on record as believing it’s a great way to
acquire wallpaper one note at a time
With that in mind, I’ve noticed that a recent statement from the
USA government has announced that they’ve ‘hit the wall’
budgetarily in Iraq; they’ve given enough financial aid to
rebuild Iraq Apparently, they’ve concluded that almost $19
billion in handouts is quite sufficient, especially when half of
it was engulfed by fighting the continued insurgency there and
thus had no lasting effect as a basis for reconstruction
Instead, the Americans believe it’s time for other governments
to belly up to the bar and make their own contributions to the
cause
That’s about as realistic as thinking that the new Iraqi Dinar
will amount to anything of value in the near future
Given that, should the USA ever leave Iraq, the country is as
liable to devolve into a prolonged civil war as the former
Yugoslavia was when an imposed authority — Tito’s
Soviet-backed communist confederation — inevitably fell away
That would be a strong indication that the prospects of a stable
currency in Iraq are slimmer than the profile of a starving
amoeba
The latest American report on their Iraqi ‘investment’ borders
on the tragic Details abound of unfinished schools and power
plants, unrepaired roads and bridges, undermanned national
miliatary forces and overpaid election costs Again, a primary
factor was the siphoning of funds to counter the insurgency
Politics aside, does this sound like the foundations of a
national economy that is going to improve anytime soon?
The sales point of most online Iraqi Dinar hawkers is that it
only takes a minimal upgrade of their economy to profit from an
increased exchange value for their currency Fair enough, but
who’s going to want to accept it in exchange? And when?
There are numerous other opportunities out there which have a
much greater growth potential than new Iraqi Dinar, and given
the comparative odds, I’d even suggest horse racing
That brings to mind an old bromide comes about the man who
strolls by a stable and sees a boy excitedly shoveling through a
pile of manure When he asks the boy why he’s doing it, the lad
answers, “With all this evidence, there’s got to be a pony in
here somewhere!”
Perhaps, but given the current status of Iraq’s economy and the
dim prospects for its future, such an allegory may be making two
different, but more salient points:
- Who would want a horse that made that much of a mess, and
- Someone else is going to have to clean it up
The Americans have apparently come to the same conclusion,
possibly even thinking that the oil business there is only a
one-trick pony
So, for anyone remotely thinking they can do better than the
most financially dynamic government in the world and make money
from anything representing the Iraqi economy — especially
speculating on its currency — I can only make one
recommendation:
Grab a shovel

Tags | borders, currency, economy, exchange, insurgency, national, reconstruction, result, tragic